Memphis, Tennessee, September 4, 2025
News Summary
The Mississippi River has hit an alarming low of negative 0.27 feet, severely impacting soybean prices and export sales for farmers in Arkansas. The ongoing drought conditions have also led to low-water restrictions for barge traffic, resulting in decreased movement of goods, especially soybeans, rice, and corn. With the lack of new trade agreements, particularly with China, U.S. soybean exports have significantly dropped this year. Arkansas farmers are anxious about the uncertain market conditions as they prepare for the upcoming season.
Memphis, Tennessee
The Mississippi River levels have reached a concerning low, currently measured at negative 0.27 feet, which is having a detrimental impact on soybean prices and export sales for farmers in Arkansas. As the river continues to drop, soybean basis, defined as the price difference between local cash prices and futures contract prices, is also experiencing a downturn that is linked to these river levels.
This year, soybean basis levels are falling below both normal and below the levels typically observed when the river reaches -5 feet. Though the critical low water threshold at Memphis is -8 feet, current conditions suggest this could be on the horizon, as drought conditions persist in the upper Mississippi Basin and along the Ohio River.
Impact of Drought Conditions
The situation has been exacerbated by the driest years on record affecting several counties bordering the Mississippi River and upstream areas along the Ohio River. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, these regions are categorized as abnormally dry or experiencing drought conditions.
Additionally, the U.S. Coast Guard has implemented low-water restrictions for barge traffic traveling between Caruthersville, Missouri, and Angola, Louisiana. New restrictions include drafts of no more than 11 feet for northbound tow barges and no greater than 11.5 feet for southbound barges. As a result, there have been significant reductions in the movement of goods, particularly soybeans, rice, and corn, reaching New Orleans for export.
Declining Export Sales
The lack of barge movement is not only affecting local farmers but is also leading to increased freight rates for barge transport. As new trade agreements remain elusive, particularly with China, the U.S. has not seen new purchases of crop soybeans from that nation. Last year, during the same timeframe, 2.9 million tons were sold to China, but this year there have been no purchases.
The USDA has reported that the U.S. has sold a total of 7.2 million tons of soybeans this year, a significant drop from 10.2 million tons at the same point last year. Mexico has emerged as the top buyer of the 2025 crop soybeans, securing 1.83 million tons, followed by several other countries including Pakistan, Taiwan, Egypt, and Japan.
Future Market Concerns
The uncertainty surrounding trade agreements, particularly with China, poses a risk of increased U.S. soybean ending stocks, which are projected at 290 million bushels for the 2025/26 season, down from 330 million last year. The USDA anticipates a total of 1.7 billion bushels in soybean exports, marking a decrease of 170 million bushels from the previous year due to ongoing trade uncertainties.
The key U.S. export window for soybeans to China runs from September to January, underscoring the urgent need for trade negotiations to take place. Adding to the competitive landscape, Brazil, which produces 40% of the worldโs soybeans, represents a significant challenge, particularly as the U.S. only accounts for 28% of global soybean production.
Other Crop Challenges
In addition to soybeans, Arkansas rice growers are feeling the pressure from low prices, which are nearing five-year lows, prompting many to consider holding onto their crops in hopes of better market conditions in the future. Long-grain rice exports for the current cycle are expected to reach 149 million bushels, a stark decrease to half of last year’s totals, mostly going to Mexico and Central America.
As these agricultural markets remain unstable, anxiety is mounting among Arkansas farmers regarding the upcoming 2025 season, with prospects appearing uncertain amidst changing weather patterns and international trade relations.
Key Statistics Summary
| Data Point | Value |
|---|---|
| Mississippi River Level | -0.27 feet |
| Soybean Exports (2023) | 7.2 million tons |
| Top Buyer of Soybeans | Mexico (1.83 million tons) |
| Projected Soybean Ending Stocks (2025/26) | 290 million bushels |
| U.S. Share of Global Soybean Production | 28% |
FAQ Section
Why are soybean prices dropping?
Soybean prices are dropping due to low Mississippi River levels impacting the soybean basis, lower barge traffic, and a lack of new purchases from China.
What are the current river conditions affecting transportation?
The Mississippi River has reached negative 0.27 feet, with ongoing low-water restrictions in effect for barge traffic, limiting freight transportation.
How are agricultural exports being affected?
Overall soybean exports have declined this year, with U.S. sales totaling 7.2 million tons, significantly lower than the previous yearโs sales during this timeframe.
What is the outlook for Arkansas farmers?
With low prices and market uncertainties, many Arkansas farmers are anxious about the upcoming 2025 season and the potential for further challenges in export opportunities.
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Additional Resources
- Stuttgart Daily Leader: Basis Sinking Faster than the Mississippi at Memphis
- Wikipedia: Mississippi River
- Arkansas Online: Healthful Legume is Basis for Many Culinary
- Google Search: Mississippi River exports
- 501 Life Magazine: The Flying Farmers
- Encyclopedia Britannica: Soybean
- DTN Progressive Farmer: Soy Crush Rapidly Expands
- Google News: Soybean market updates
Author: STAFF HERE MEMPHIS WRITER
The MEMPHIS STAFF WRITER represents the experienced team at HEREMemphis.com, your go-to source for actionable local news and information in Memphis, Shelby County, and beyond. Specializing in "news you can use," we cover essential topics like product reviews for personal and business needs, local business directories, politics, real estate trends, neighborhood insights, and state news affecting the areaโwith deep expertise drawn from years of dedicated reporting and strong community input, including local press releases and business updates. We deliver top reporting on high-value events such as Beale Street Music Festival, Elvis Week, and Memphis in May International Festival. Our coverage extends to key organizations like the Greater Memphis Chamber and the Memphis Convention & Visitors Bureau, plus leading businesses in logistics, healthcare, and music that power the local economy such as FedEx, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, and AutoZone. As part of the broader HERE network, including HEREBristol.com, HEREChattanooga.com, HEREKnoxville.com, and HERENashville.com, we provide comprehensive, credible insights into Tennessee's dynamic landscape.
