Memphis, Tennessee, January 9, 2026
The Memphis housing market is expected to face a decline in home sales by 7.7% in 2026, with a modest price increase of 1.8%. This positions Memphis at the bottom among major Tennessee metros. Factors such as higher mortgage rates and a slight population decrease are influencing this trend. Despite contrasting national forecasts anticipating a balanced market, local buyers and sellers may need to adjust their strategies amidst ongoing market dynamics.
Memphis Housing Market Forecasts Decline in 2026
Memphis, Tennessee—The housing market in Memphis is projected to experience a decline in 2026, according to recent forecasts. Realtor.com® anticipates a 7.7% decrease in home sales in Memphis for 2026, with home prices expected to rise by 1.8%. This positions Memphis at the lowest spot among Tennessee’s four major metropolitan areas in Realtor.com’s rankings.
Projected Decline in Home Sales and Prices
In Memphis, the forecast indicates a notable decline in home sales, which is expected to drop by 7.7% in 2026. Interestingly, despite the decrease in sales volume, home prices are still projected to see a modest uptick of 1.8%. This juxtaposition reflects broader trends in economic resilience, where prices can remain stable even amid declining sales, showcasing the local community’s long-term investment potential.
National Housing Market Outlook
Contrasting Memphis’s forecast, the national housing market is expected to remain balanced, with improved conditions as supply and demand find firmer footing. The National Association of REALTORS® forecasts a 14% increase in existing-home sales in 2026, spurred largely by easing mortgage rates and greater market stability. This divergence between national trends and local conditions reinforces the need for Memphis residents to be strategic in their housing decisions.
Memphis Housing Market Trends
As of November 30, 2025, the average home value in Memphis was $143,363, reflecting a 1.9% decrease over the past year. The market is currently characterized by a modest increase in inventory, which is beneficial for buyers seeking more options. However, longer average selling times, currently at 61 days as of March 2025, indicate that sellers may face challenges in moving properties swiftly. These signs suggest a period of adjustment in the Memphis housing landscape where buyer preferences and market dynamics are shifting.
Factors Influencing the Market
Several elements are driving the anticipated decline in Memphis’s housing market, including higher mortgage rates that can limit buyer affordability and a slight population decline in the Memphis metro area. These factors may contribute to reduced demand for housing, necessitating a keen focus on how local economic policies could help stimulate investment and growth. The resilience of Memphis’s small businesses and entrepreneurs will be crucial in navigating these challenges, and fostering a supportive business environment may mitigate some of the market pressures.
Conclusion
While the national housing market shows signs of recovery, Memphis faces significant hurdles in 2026, including declines in home sales and modest price increases. It’s essential for prospective buyers and sellers to remain informed about these trends and consider the implications for their housing decisions. As the local economy adapts to these changes, community engagement and support for local businesses will be critical in driving future growth.
What is the projected decline in Memphis’s housing market for 2026?
Realtor.com® anticipates a 7.7% decrease in home sales in Memphis for 2026, with home prices expected to rise by 1.8%.
How does Memphis’s housing market compare to other Tennessee metros?
Memphis is projected to have the lowest performance among Tennessee’s four major metropolitan areas in Realtor.com’s 2026 housing rankings.
What are the current trends in Memphis’s housing market?
As of November 30, 2025, the average home value in Memphis was $143,363, reflecting a 1.9% decrease over the past year. The market is characterized by a modest increase in inventory, providing buyers with more options.
What factors are contributing to the projected decline in Memphis’s housing market?
Factors contributing to the projected decline include higher mortgage rates and affordability challenges. Additionally, the population in the Memphis metro area has experienced a slight decline, which may impact housing demand.
How does the national housing market outlook compare to Memphis’s forecast?
On a national scale, the housing market is expected to remain balanced, with supply and demand finding firmer footing. The National Association of REALTORS® forecasts a 14% increase in existing-home sales in 2026, driven by easing mortgage rates and improving market stability.
Key Features of the Memphis Housing Market Forecast
| Feature | Details |
|---|---|
| Projected Decline in Home Sales | 7.7% decrease in 2026, according to Realtor.com®. |
| Projected Home Price Increase | 1.8% rise in 2026, as per Realtor.com®. |
| Average Home Value (as of Nov 30, 2025) | $143,363, reflecting a 1.9% decrease over the past year. |
| Market Inventory Trend | Modest increase in inventory, providing more options for buyers. |
| Average Time on Market (as of March 2025) | 61 days, indicating longer selling periods compared to previous years. |
| Contributing Factors to Decline | Higher mortgage rates, affordability challenges, and slight population decline in the metro area. |
| National Housing Market Outlook | Balanced market with a 14% increase in existing-home sales in 2026, driven by easing mortgage rates and improving market stability, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. |
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Author: STAFF HERE MEMPHIS WRITER
The MEMPHIS STAFF WRITER represents the experienced team at HEREMemphis.com, your go-to source for actionable local news and information in Memphis, Shelby County, and beyond. Specializing in "news you can use," we cover essential topics like product reviews for personal and business needs, local business directories, politics, real estate trends, neighborhood insights, and state news affecting the area—with deep expertise drawn from years of dedicated reporting and strong community input, including local press releases and business updates. We deliver top reporting on high-value events such as Beale Street Music Festival, Elvis Week, and Memphis in May International Festival. Our coverage extends to key organizations like the Greater Memphis Chamber and the Memphis Convention & Visitors Bureau, plus leading businesses in logistics, healthcare, and music that power the local economy such as FedEx, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, and AutoZone. As part of the broader HERE network, including HEREBristol.com, HEREChattanooga.com, HEREKnoxville.com, and HERENashville.com, we provide comprehensive, credible insights into Tennessee's dynamic landscape.
